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US Weekly: The Art of the Tariff

Winnie Cisar - Global Head of Strategy, ÂÒÂ׶ÌÊÓƵ
Zachary Griffiths, CFA - Head of IG & Macro Strategy, ÂÒÂ׶ÌÊÓƵ
Charles Johnston, CFA - Head of Energy, ÂÒÂ׶ÌÊÓƵ
Wen Li, CFA - Head of Metals & Mining, ÂÒÂ׶ÌÊÓƵ
Pat Luby - Head of Municipal Strategy, ÂÒÂ׶ÌÊÓƵ
Logan Miller - Head of European Strategy, ÂÒÂ׶ÌÊÓƵ
Brian Perez - Analyst, Credit Strategy, ÂÒÂ׶ÌÊÓƵ
Kathleen Tang - Analyst, Strategy, ÂÒÂ׶ÌÊÓƵ

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    • Treasury Markets: The US Treasury curve experienced a modest bull flattening over the past week, with the 2Y and 10Y yields declining. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady reflects caution amid re-inflation concerns, suggesting a data-dependent approach and likely holding rates higher for longer. President Trump invoked emergency powers to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China leading to negative market reactions, with US equity futures down and UST yields rising in the short and mid-term.
    • Credit Markets: IG spreads widened slightly, while HY spreads also saw an increase. UST yield movements led to lower yields for IG corporates, though HY yields rose marginally. Despite these changes, both IG and HY showed positive total and excess returns for January.
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